Daily Fantasy Football is almost here!l

August 31, 2015

So I’m getting ready for some football; yes that’s right it’s football season and I’m going to blog about my gambling experiences betting on football and I will also be participating in daily fantasy football games also.

I’m starting with $50 on Yahoo and Fanduel.  Going to play the $1/$2 entries to build up bankroll.  We’ll see what happens.

I’m also going to put $50 into a sportsbook account and try and get that up to $1,000 – mostly by betting parlays and teasers.

General strategy for daily fantasy football games:

Pick players from high scoring games.  I’m going to check sportsbook and use the over/under as a starting point.  If any game has a O/U of at least 48 total points then I’m picking as many players from that game.  I didn’t come up with this strategy but I think it’s a sound strategy…besides the people at Vegas are very good at predicting these things.

Another strategy I want to try is keying certain players and loading them up on my team.  This might be a disaster because if my keyed player gets hurt or has a bad game then most of my entries will go bust.  Cheap good players are hard to find on fantasy sites so if I find a cheap player that has high upside then I’m going all in.

WRs to Target on Fanduel:

Jordan Matthews – $6,800

Davante Adams – $5,500

John Brown – $6,000

Chris Ivory – $6,400

For WRs, my preference is to always have a cheap player with explosive potential.  All 3 WRs I have listed all fit in that category.  I’m particularly excited about having Matthews on my team.  Atlanta’s D is pretty bad and I think the Eagle’s offensive strategy will create many opportunities for stats.

For RBs, I’m looking for cheap RBs who are goal line vultures or RBs that can catch.  3 down backs are hard to find and they’re also expensive on FanDuel, consequently, my strategy of loading on cheap WRs will allow me to pick at least one elite runner.  For week 1 I love Eddie Lacy ($8,500).  I think with Chicago’s weak D and all the injuries to the Green Bay WRs will force McCarthy to run Eddie Lacy more until Cobb heals and when Davante Adams/Janis/Ty Montgomery finally understand the complex passing offense that the Packers employ.  Losing Jordy Nelson is a big deal for GB.  It doesn’t mean that anyone can replace a talent like Nelson, despite the obv athleticism shown by the 3 young WRs vying to replace Nelson.

RBs to target on Fanduel:

Chris Ivory – $6,400.

I liked what I saw from Ivory so far. He runs tough and he even has shown some soft hands out of the backfield.  He’s also the primary goal line back.  Not bad.

Doug Martin – $6,900.

Contract year and has a chip on his shoulder.  I’ll take a flyer and go with the muscle hamster.

Jonathan Stewart – $7,100.

I know he gets hurt all the time but I think the Panthers are going to lean on the run more this year and Stewart will be the primary back in my opinion.  The funny thing about talented backs who get hurt a lot…they always have one really good year where they’re healthy…think Arian Foster or CJ Spiller.  Stewart is due.

Another strategy is to take the cheapest kicker possible that is attached to a decent offense.  I want kickers who play on offenses that stall inside the opponents 30 yd line.

The only TEs that I would even consider are obv the big three (Gronk, Graham, Olson)…yes Greg Olson is an elite TE. Who else is Cam Newton going to be throwing to? These TEs will cost you.  Graham is $6,900.

I won’t go for the middle tier TE’s.  I don’t think they hold any value. I’d rather take a chance on a athletic TE that is a endzone target:

Tyler Eifert – $5,000

Jordan Cameron – $5,500

Larry Donnell – $5,300

Eric Ebron – $5,000

Charles Clay – $5,000

These are the cheapest TEs with the most upside in my opinion. They key here is that all of these TEs have decent QBs throwing to them (except Charles Clay) and they’re supposed to get their share of end zone targets as well. For week 1 I really like Cameron as a cheap decent upside TE.

I really love the Jets D ($4,400) against a horrible Cleveland offense.  I also like Miami’s D ($4,700) because they’re playing the Redskins and whomever they start at QB…Kirk Cousins? HA.  I also love Minnesota’s D, especially for their week 1 match up with the Niners.  Kaepernick is completely lost at QB.  They lost a lot of talent on both sides of the ball and lost their head coach.  This team needs a year or two to re-set so I’m going to gamble on the Niners being a sub 6 win team.  The other strategy is to stream defenses depending on the team they’re playing.  Houston, San Fran, Cleveland, Buffalo, Jets, Carolina, Washington, and the Jaguars are all teams I’d consider using a defense against.

That’s my strategy and I’m hoping it’s a good one.

Starting Bankroll: $50


So So Days

August 31, 2015

So the Atlantic City trip was a minor success.

I wound up being down $80.  One hand really did me in…it was the difference between being up $400 or down $80.

I limped with 33 and hit a set.  Some loose passive player hit two pair on the turn and shoved.  I called, and he boated on the river.  $400+ given to some luckbox who then gives it all to somebody else chasing the straight. Don’t you hate when that happens?

I did have a couple of good sessions.  I managed a +$597 session at the Borgata.  I also booked a +$200 session, however, i did have some losing sessions as well (-$275 and a -$100 session).  Sprinkle in all the tournaments I didn’t cash it and you have a -$80 trip.

The tournaments went lousy.  I went deep but not deep enough to cash.  I was so close though…always 5 off the money.  Sucks. I was ahead every time preflop.  This is how I went down during the tournaments:

2/3 vs QJs

Guy to my left was super aggressive and I was short stacked so I had to choose when to defend my blinds as he was raising my blinds often.  I have $40K in chips (blinds are 3k-6k with a 1k ante).  He raises to 12K and I shove my 40K into the pot.  He says he has pot odds. he calls with 2/3. I have QJs.  338 on the flop ends my run.  oh well.

KJ vs Q10 & Q10

Again short stacked (about 6x BB) and  I push with KJ and get two callers. Both have Q10.  Both hit a 10 on the flop.  Are you kidding me?  Game over.

88 vs A5s

This was a bounty tournament and I had already secured 4 bounties. This was the tourney that I was really focused and playing well up until we are two off the bubble.  I have a healthy stack and I can cruise into the money if I can only dodge some bad luck…

I have 88 on the button, i limp and hit my set on a 874 flop.  checked to me and I check. Turn is an Ace.  Great card for me…I check and button shoves, I call he has A5.  Gut shot straight draw…nothing ever comes easy.  And you know the rest.  I book my $100 in bounties and call it day.  Yuck.

Then again being down $80 isn’t so bad when you consider that I was down $800 on tournaments alone.  Even so, I would say that I didn’t have a successful trip but I didn’t have a really bad one either.  I guess I’ll have to get them next time.


Atlantic City and Delaware Park

August 10, 2015

So this weekend I’m planning to go on a much needed mini-vacation. The first stop in my poker vacation will be Delaware Park. Planning to play the $100 on Saturday afternoon. This game will be soft but that’s not to say it won’t be difficult to cash. Luck is the great equalizer and sometimes the other guy gets lucky. I’ve went deep and bubbled a couple of times at Delaware…so no breakthroughs in terms of big cashes so I hope that this week will be different.

Sunday is going to be Atlantic City and the Borgata. Tried to play the 2015 Summer Heater but I couldn’t take off work so it’s going to be the Cabot Charity Event (Put a Bad Beat on Hunger). It’s a $300 buy in ($220+$30+$20) and last year first place was $9K. Sweet if I can get there. Hopefully the poker gods see fit to reward me this weekend.

For Monday and Tuesday, I think I’ll hit up the Borgata daily tournaments or possibly play in the cheaper buy-ins if I bomb out on all my tourneys and cash games.

Upcoming stuff:

Fantasy football is back! Already in 2 leagues – one’s a snake draft and the other is an auction draft. Details to come.

Lastly, I’m all set for some daily fantasy football action on Fanduel. Going to start with $100 and see what transpires.

Wish me luck!


Fantasy Football Anyone?

July 27, 2015

Since Online poker is illegal here in NYC, I’m going to re-start this blog and see if I can make some $$ participating in daily fantasy football games on Fanduel.

I’m going to think of a plan and see if I can make some scratch.  More to come….


Player of the Year part 2

December 24, 2014

I’ve finally done it……twice.

2x player of the year.  This quarter I was on fire, at one point cashing in 7 straight games, and rode the rush to another player of the year award.

It was a successful year, however, it’s still a work in progress and I need to continue playing solid poker if I want to remain profitable in the long run.

Stats for 2014:

50 games

20 cashes

Profit: $1,599

A 40% cash rate is pretty sweet, however, there’s room for improvement there also.  I won 6 times and chopped once this year to go along with eight 2nd place finishes.  Not bad but I need to convert more cashes into wins.  My goal for 2015 is to up my win to cash ratio to 50% or higher in league games.

My cash game in the league was successful also as I booked a $585 profit, most of it coming from a +$171 night early in the year.

Its clear my poker game has improved and my wallet shows it. But it isn’t only about the big picture, it’s also about mastering the little things in poker that add up to bigger profits.  Little things like extracting maximum value from thin value hands or exercising better pot control while in position.

While my goals remain the same….to book a profit while playing poker…I also am thankful for everything I’ve gotten from poker even the bad beats.

 


Atlantic City Action

July 25, 2013

Interesting weekend in AC. I started out playing some cash (1/2) prior to playing in a tournament.

I did pretty well in cash as I pocketed $84 in profit before I registered in the tournament ($70).

I understand that playing cash is different from playing in a tournament but I don’t understand why I do so much better at cash than in tournaments. I wonder if my readers also have a similar outcome.

The tournament was over pretty quick for me. I have 88 and the flop is:

J 8 J – two diamonds

yay me, flop a fullhouse and I’m ready to chip up. I’m in EP so I check. 3 other players check behind.

The turn:

another J.

ugh. not a great card for me but I think I’m still ahead as I’m pretty sure no one has a pocket pair higher than my 88. There could be a person holding the case Jack but I bet anyway to narrow the other players range. SInce the pot had about 3K in it already, I decide to bet 1,800. Two callers. Well both of you can’t have the Jack, so let’s see what the river brings us.

The river is a J.

UGLY. Now my boat is counterfeited and I check. As everyone checks around and King high wins the pot. Sick isn’t it? Short stacked and bored, I last only an hour in the tournament.

I slink back to my cash game and play for 4 hours until the next tournament. I wind up doing very well playing cash, up $150 after 4+ hours.

Key hand in this session is when I had 66 in the hijack seat and facing a $15 raise from an older guy in middle position.  I flat the raise, hoping to hit a set.  2 other callers in the pot also (yes the action was that sick).

The Flop:

2  3  4 rainbow.

Not a bad flop for me, however the PF raiser leads out for $25.  I’m convinced he has a over pair because he was a pretty tight player and usually a $15 PF raise indicates a big pair or AK/AQ at least at least as he’s shown down some big hands.  So I flat the bet and see if I can spike a 5 or 6. One other player calls the bet also.

The turn is my magical 5.  Now I’m in business.  The question is how to extract value from these guys, provided they have a Ace in their hand.

villain # 1 again bets out $25, other guy folds and I flat the bet again.  The bet seemed a little light but I’m thinking I’m going to string him along so I just call.

The river was a blank and this time the villain checks.  I’ve seen this before where there might be a chop pot and players check it down on the river.  I’ve also seen guys try to buy the pot when there is 4 to a straight and both players have the straight already.  But this is different.  I have the nuts basically and I’m thinking anyone holding an Ace is going to call. There’s roughly $180 in the pot, I bet out $75.  I don’t want to bet more and get the other player to fold.  I also don’t want to bet too small and not maximize my value if indeed the villain has an Ace in his hand. $75 seemed like a good amount.

Villain insta calls and shows AA.  Good enough for the second nut.  I show 66 and take it down.

After 4 hours, I again take a stab at a tournament.  Another $70 down the drain.  My tournament game is suffering.  I don’t know what it is but I haven’t cashed in my last 12 tournaments.  I haven’t even come close, so I have to figure out my leaks or maybe it’s variance.  I’d like to to think that but I’m pretty sure there are plenty of leaks in my tournament play as of late.

This time it took me about 5 levels before I tanked my chips to some guy who amassed a huge stack by hitting the board hard.  I was involved with the chip leader in a hand where I had AQs.  Flop was K Q x.  Two diamonds. Bet, bet, raise and shove. Game over, I didn’t hit my Q or another diamond.  Villain had K9 suited. Go figure. At least I lasted 2 hours, so that’s a start. My plan for this tournament was to play tight and raise only when I had a top hand.  TAG. TAG. TAG. That’s how I was going to turn this tournament negative streak around.  Oh well it didn’t work out the way I expected.  Back to the drawing board.

Anyway it’s a blessing in disguise as I head back to the cash tables at around 9pm.

I’m playing well, picking my spots, and mixing it up.  I was called down on some bluffs (small ones) and a few times I was nicked when other players had 2 pair against my TPTK. Why do guys call bets with top pair and weak kicker is beyond me.  I lost a fairly big pot ($150+) when my KQ ran up against K2 and he hits two pair on the river.  My turn bet was fairly big $50 but the guy called anyway and spiked his two pair.  GRRRR….

Even with some ill timed bluffs and other players getting a little lucky against me, I’m still up $200 at that point.

Then the biggest hand of the night.  I’m in EP with 99.  I raise to $8 and I get a whole bunch of callers until the button where he raises me to $20.  OK, let’s see if we can hit a set.  Only one other callers came to play this hand.  3 handed and waiting for the flop:

K   5  9. two clubs.

Bingo, I hit my set.  Let’s see if we can make some money on this hand.

I’m in EP so I check, let’s see what the two other players are going to do.  At this point I’m only worried about one of the villains holding KK, which would put a damper on the party that’s going on in my head. I hit a set, against two rocks.  I hope they have something big.

Original bettor, bets out $40 and the 2nd guy in the hand, pushes for his last $93.  I call. villain calls.

The turn was another 9.  Quads!  I can barely keep myself still but I have to keep a straight face like I’m scared of that 9.

I check, and the villain checks behind.  Maybe I should’ve put in a bet here. Tight villain probably has the K but how big.  His PF raise seems to smell like AA or AK.  This guy was pretty tight from my observation. I go through the hand in my head again and I think he’s got AK and he’s afraid I hit trips with the 9.

The river was inconsequential because I’m holding QUADS!  lol.

This is where I don’t like that I’m in EP.  I’d much rather be in late position and finish the action than start it.  There’s $200+ in the pot and I’m trying to see how much value I can get. The villain has about $120 left in his stack.  Shoving doesn’t seem like a good move, I want a chance for villain to call down with AK or AA, if he doesn’t have it then he’s going to fold anyway (maybe he missed his flush) so shoving is out.

I decide to bet out $80.  Yes it’s kinda of smallish but I wanted to bet a decent amount so I can get some “call equity” with AA, AK, or even KQ, so $80 seemed to be good.

Villain calls and I take down another big pot (for 1/2).

At this point I’m at $750 and sitting pretty.

I wish I could say that I kept all of my winnings but as we know poker can be a bitch and I lost a big hand to a flush over flush, and another when I had KK and the villain had 1010 and spiked a 10 on the river when we were all in PF (he was short stacked and had only about $100 when he shoved to my PF bet).   Add up all the bluffs that went wrong and I wind up with $535. Not bad, I’ll take it.

To recap:

I wind up +$379 on the night.

+ $519 in cash

– $140 in tournaments.

+ $379 on the night.  Not too shabby.


Where to start?

June 1, 2012

So I have $20 in my account.

What to play?

I guess I can play cash @ .02/.05 levels.  It would be faster to build my BR but then I could go bust if I run bad.

Or I can  play SNGs…both single table and multi table which is something that i’m confident that I can be successful at but again if I go on a bad streak my BR is bust.

Lastly, I can play micro MTTs.  All I need is make one decent score and my BR will skyrocket, however, I’m not sure I want to spend hours and hours playing a micro MTT.

I would also say I’m equally good (or bad) at all these disciplines. 

Not sure what I’m gonna do.  Maybe a little of everything.